Live · v4 monitoring

Polymarket BTC 15m Bot

Pure rule-based TA bot — zero LLM cost, transparent equity curve dari $200.

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The Bet

Black-box EA bikin profit, tapi ga ada yang ngerti. Bot transparent fix itu.

Live snapshot

Real equity, real-time.

Bot live di VPS Polymarket. Data dari trades.jsonl + balance check tiap 30s. Tidak ada paper trading di sini.
Architecture

Enam komponen, satu sistem.

AI sebagai strategist (offline calibration). Algorithm sebagai executor (online). Data → Detection → Decision → Execution → Monitor → Learn.

  1. Data layer

    WebSocket subscribe ke Hyperliquid BTC-PERP 15m candles + funding rate + L2 orderbook depth. Buffer rolling 200 candles.

  2. Detection layer

    VWAP cross + RSI(14) divergence + MACD histogram + Heiken Ashi smoothed bars. Multi-indicator confluence threshold ≥3.

  3. Decision layer

    Rule-based signal scoring. No LLM. Outputs: LONG / SHORT / FLAT dengan confidence 0-100. Threshold 65 baru fire.

  4. Execution layer

    Position sizing dari ATR(14) × risk %. Entry IOC limit + 2 SL leg + 2 TP leg (60% di TP1, 40% trail dari TP2).

  5. Monitor layer

    Trail SL chandelier (3-stage: BE → FULL_TRAIL → TIGHT). Position close watcher daemon. Telegram notif per fill/close.

  6. Learn layer

    Post-mortem per trade ke lessons.jsonl. Adaptive prompt feedback loop — feed past mistakes ke next decision matrix.

Risk management

Tiga lapis proteksi.

Bukan single stop loss. Trade-level guard → position-level cap → account-level circuit breaker. Setiap lapis catch failure dari lapis sebelumnya.

Trade level
Stop loss hard di 1.5×ATR. Tidak bisa di-bypass. Chandelier trail aktif setelah +0.5R untuk lock partial profit.
Position level
Position size ≤2% account equity. Leverage cap 3x. Open positions ≤3 concurrent. Correlation cek antar simbol.
Account level
Daily drawdown -3% → auto-flat semua open + pause trading 24h. Weekly -5% → pause until manual review.
Stack

Production.

Runtime Node.js PM2 daemonized
Exchange Hyperliquid BTC-PERP unified
Signals VWAP · RSI · MACD · HA multi-indicator confluence
Hosting VPS Polymarket 84.247.154.94
  1. P1

    Foundation — Rule-Based TA Engine

    Shipped
    • VWAP + RSI + MACD + Heiken Ashi indicators
    • 3-phase entry logic (EARLY/MID/LATE confidence decay)
    • Polymarket CLOB integration (clob-client v5.8.1)
    • ethers.js v6 wallet management
    • Binance WS + Chainlink oracle dual-feed
    Shipped · 2026-Q1
  2. P1.5

    Risk Engine + Order Optimization

    Shipped
    • Integer share rounding + FAK order matching
    • TP +50% / SL -40% exit manager
    • Force-exit <90s before settlement
    • Loss-streak pause (3× → 30m cooldown)
    • SALDO_FLOOR emergency brake at $80
    Shipped · 2026-Q1
  3. P1.6

    Live Deploy + Telegram Ops

    Shipped
    • VPS EU 84.247.154.94 systemd service
    • Telegram commands /saldo /help /status
    • Lifetime stats persistence (trades.jsonl)
    • Warmup delay 180s anti-garbage signal
    • 3 critical fixes (warmup/FAK/balance)
    Shipped · 22 Apr 2026
  4. P2

    Resume Live (Pending Top-Up)

    In flight

    SALDO_FLOOR_HIT triggered — bot paused awaiting capital top-up. Equity guard worked as designed.

  5. P3

    Multi-Market Scaling

    Queued

    Beyond BTC 15m — add ETH 15m, SOL 15m, daily prediction markets. Per-market position sizing.

    Impact · Diversify market exposure, capture more opportunities
  6. P4

    Kelly Fraction Position Sizing

    Queued

    Dynamic sizing based on consecutive wins + edge confidence. Replace flat sizing.

    Est · 3 hari build Impact · Compound winning streaks faster, conservative on losing
  7. P5

    Trailing SL + Profit Scaling

    Queued

    Replace fixed TP/SL with chandelier trailing + tier-based profit lock-in (50% close at +30%, runner trailing).

    Impact · Let winners run further, capture trend market
  8. P6

    Public Live Performance Dashboard

    Queued

    Real-time equity curve + trade log public URL. Transparency-first vs vendor opaque claims.

    Impact · Build trust, demonstrate consistency, optional sell access
  9. P7

    Cold-Start Bootstrap Automation

    Queued

    Automatic wallet provisioning from seed phrase, multi-instance scaling, K8s-style orchestration.

    Impact · Trivial new deployment, multi-account scaling
Next up

More live builds.

Six SaaS + two trading bots, all running. Case studies dengan narrative + roadmap transparan.

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